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  #3511  
Old 09-07-2024, 10:33 AM
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I know this will be old news for many on here, and I have posted this info before, but based on conversations I have had with a few people lately, I also know this is not as widely known as one would believe.

Below is a selection of High Dividend paying stocks, plus a wide range of ETFs and Mutual Funds. It is sorted from largest to smallest growth over that last 5 years. The percentage growth is the growth in the actual share price/fund price over that time. So a $10 stock or fund 5 years ago that grew 100% , is now worth $20.

What you have to consider when looking at relative growth rates is the percentages displayed are all in for ETFs and Mutual funds, as nearly none of them pay any kind of a dividend. (There are exceptions to that like ZWB, ZWU and others described as High Dividend Yield Funds that are designed to generate dividend income, but they are the minority. For most funds, at best dividends are rolled back into the fund.)

For the individual stocks you need to consider the dividend stream that they throw off, in addition to the simple growth in share prices. So for example, using the rule of 72, a stock with a 7.2% dividend would double in 10 years, one with a 4% dividend would double in 18 years, so for the 7.2% yield, the dividend would increase the total growth by an additional 50%, roughly, in a 5 year period. You need to add the extra growth to the displayed growth number to get an apples to apples comparison.

So for example BCE, which is the worst 5 year performer on the list, is currently paying an 8.2% dividend, which means it would double in 8.8 years. So in the chart below, BCE shows a negative -26.2% growth rate over 5 year, add the dividend re-investment back and that becomes a 25% growth rate. So, even though the share price itself has dropped from $53.97 Jan 2, 2019 to 48.50 over 5 years, you have collected the $4 per year dividend, paid quarterly. That amounts to $20 over 5 years, which means you are better than even on the share price drop, even if you spent the dividends. If the dividend had been re-invested in BCE through the drip, you would have been buying shares every quarter, so often at prices lower than $54, sometimes higher. (This is dollar cost averaging at work)

BCE.TO
Start date: 01/02/2019
End date: 09/06/2024
Start price/share: $53.97
End price/share: $48.50
Starting shares: 185.29
Ending shares: 259.01
Dividends reinvested/share: $19.55
Total return: 25.62%
Average Annual Total Return: 4.10%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $12,563.50
Years: 5.68

Royal Bank's 5 year growth goes from +62.5% to over 118% when you roll the dividend back into it. Thus my comments about how important safe, and growing dividends that are re-invested using the DRIP programs, are to total return. (This is admittedly a somewhat simplified description of how this works, but for the purposes at hand, it illustrated the point)

RY.CA Growth of $10,000.00
With Dividends Reinvested
Click for detailed chart tool
Start date: 01/02/2019
End date: 09/06/2024
Start price/share: $93.62
End price/share: $164.08
Starting shares: 106.81
Ending shares: 133.20
Dividends reinvested/share: $26.08
Total return: 118.56%
Average Annual Total Return: 14.76%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $21,856.34
Years: 5.68

I hope this helps simplify understanding the common growth charts that are posted for stocks and funds.


Last edited by Dean2; 09-07-2024 at 10:55 AM.
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  #3512  
Old 09-08-2024, 02:08 PM
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This is the best website I have found to give more clarity on returns with dividends; what Dean speaks about above:

https://www.dripcalc.com/stocks/ry.to/

Dean do you know of any online calculators that will factor dividend income into the return for a fair comparison of stocks?
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  #3513  
Old 09-08-2024, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ab_hunter View Post
This is the best website I have found to give more clarity on returns with dividends; what Dean speaks about above:

https://www.dripcalc.com/stocks/ry.to/

Dean do you know of any online calculators that will factor dividend income into the return for a fair comparison of stocks?
This one will show you the retun with reinvestment, and the total return with dividend if you don't reinvest. You can verify it is works right by looking at the average share price over the investment period. If the share price is consistently higher than the current price then drip and non drip will have almost the same total return. If the share price was steadily rising then the drip value will be much higher than the non drip. Compare Telus over 15 years then over 5 and you will see what I mean.

Do the same with Royal and Bamk of Nova Scotia. Very illuminating.


https://www.canadastockchannel.com/c...ns-calculator/https://www.canadastockchannel.com/c...ns-calculator/

Last edited by Dean2; 09-08-2024 at 03:47 PM.
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  #3514  
Old 09-11-2024, 11:56 AM
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Markets have been VERY volatile the first 9 days of September. Really good time to have some open dated, limit orders in place to pickup deals on top notch stocks. A couple of my low ball limit orders have already filled so I am a happy camper.
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  #3515  
Old 09-11-2024, 01:17 PM
kingrat kingrat is offline
 
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I've been buying up my uranium stocks this past week. Today they're shooting back up for some reason.
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  #3516  
Old 09-12-2024, 12:53 PM
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Thought I would poke my nose into this thread again and mention the overlooked and underappreciated portfolio diversifier that has been doing well as of late.

Golds at an all time high today around $2583 USD.

Last year it returned about 12% YOY and this year about 23% YTD in Canadian dollars. Not bad for the lead metal.

Agnico Eagle is up about 54%, and even the persistently poorer company, Newmont gold is up a respectable 32% YTD.

Cheers.
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  #3517  
Old 09-12-2024, 12:58 PM
Map Maker Map Maker is offline
 
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Should be safe to say that 90% of investors should be at all time high right now with the markets at all time high.

The old adage is correct. Better to stay in the market and ride out the lows instead of trying to time the ups and downs. I am getting more interested in index etfs to take advantage of that.
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  #3518  
Old 09-17-2024, 07:31 AM
Glion Glion is online now
 
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Apparently inflation dropped to 2% for August, and now some "experts" are predicting 200 basis point drop in BOC rate by mid next year. If so that should turn the real estate market in Alberta quite hot.
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  #3519  
Old 09-17-2024, 08:40 AM
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Remember, inflation dropping to 2%, does not mean prices will come down, they are just going up slower. Some things like food and rent are still going up a whole bunch faster than 2%. Food Bank usage is so high, some of the food banks can't stay open full time as they can't keep their shelves stocked. Users abusing that system is rising rapidly too.

On top of this, we have unemployment rising, huge numbers of illegal aliens and refugees who can't work legally but can access the full range of services. This is putting HUGE pressure on everything, which means user fees, rationing and increased taxes are on the way. The burgeoning carbon tax has nothing to do with carbon reduction, nor does the increase in Capital gains tax have anything to do with fairness. Fed spending is so out of control they can't fleece peoples pockets fast enough.

The cost of living is NOT going to go down, nor will the need to be able to pay for access to things like Health Services if you don't want to wait in endless lines for the public version. It is imperative to build assets and resiliency because the next ten years, even if the PCs get in, are going to be a tough row to hoe.

P.S.698,823 thread views, so 27,000 in the last 6 days.

Last edited by Dean2; 09-17-2024 at 08:52 AM.
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  #3520  
Old 09-18-2024, 08:44 AM
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BCE has been slowly rising from its 52 week low of 42.58. At yesterdays price it was paying an 8.7% dividend. The worry has been that the high debt and large expenses/capital requirements meant the dividend might be at risk of being cut. BCE has never cut the dividend in its history, but this has depressed the share price for quite a while.

Today they announced they have sold 4.7 Billion in entertainment assets to Rogers. This is double the book value of that asset. BCE took a $1.63 jump to $48.55, this morning on the news. They were actually up to $49.10 when the news was first announced, while Rogers dropped $1.50.

Not only does this allow them to pay down debt, prior to the sale long term debt was at 32 billion, it also gets rid of a large amount of expenses as this segment was not a producer of net income. BCE has more non-core assets it can sell as well as a lot more triggers to pull on reducing CAPX and expenses. In addition, the dropping interest rates will have a favourable impact on interest expenses on the debt.

I sold all my Rogers shares when they announced the Shaw purchase, for which they over paid by a lot, and are still having issues integrating it. Now they have paid a premium to acquire BCE's 37.5% interest in an asset Rogers already held a 37.5% share in. In my estimation, Rogers acquisition spree is expensive, adds a lot of expenses and it is going to be quite a while before they are accretive to earnings. Thus, I hold BCE and Telus, and no Rogers.

In general, September continues to show its usual pattern of volatility, rotation and down draft on many stocks. A lot of ETFs and mutal funds have to re-balance their holdings in Sept and triple witching for options is apon us.


Quote:
$4.7 billion for Bells 37.5% interest MLSE alone when estimated combined value of Bells 37.5% interest in MLSE together with a 20% interest in Montreal Canadians was estimated at $4.5 billion

PLUS Bell did not sell its interest in the Montreal Canadians
PLUS Bell has access for 20 years to content for both the Maple Leafs and Raptors

Undoubtedly, Bell got a great price for monetizing the asset = prize!!

PLUS, the earlier commentary, “When you look at sports assets, probably the market value of those assets relative to the financial impact, there’s, in my mind, kind of a disconnect,” he said. WHICH IMPLIES TO ME THAT THE MARKET WILL NOT REALIZE THE FULL MARKET VALUE OF THE ASSET UNTIL SOLD, WHICH MEANS TO ME THAT BCE STOCK COULD INCREASE A COUPLE OF DOLLARS TODAY....

Surprise!!

Last edited by Dean2; 09-18-2024 at 08:59 AM.
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