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01-23-2020, 07:11 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NW Calgary
Posts: 2,785
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I read they were going to build a hospital in 6 days. Even if renovating this is impressive!!
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01-23-2020, 07:16 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 4,134
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Canada should have a travel ban on anyone from China right now. Tin foil hats you say! You must not have any children at home.
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01-23-2020, 08:15 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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25 deaths out of 830 cases, brings this from a 2% to a 3% death rate again. 50% increase in one day, although the sample is small. I am willing to bet the true numbers are about 10x that. So what about the remaining 805 that aren't dead, yet. Bet they are not having much fun! That is just what has been tested, and reported. This is no tinfoil hat thing. It is exploding over a couple days. Watch the numbers in two weeks.... and how far it reaches....
I'm wrapping my tinfoil hat in more tinfoil as we speak. I have a pregnant wife and a 5yr old daughter, and a background in science, including studying genetics, bacteria, and viruses. My hat will be 30 layers thick soon. This thing scares me, and am certain it will get much much worse. WAY worse than SARS, which I consider minor on a global scale. I'm doing what Ken mentioned in a quickly deleted thread, I'm with you bud!
Last edited by bloopbloob; 01-23-2020 at 08:30 PM.
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01-23-2020, 08:32 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Some reading on the corona type viruses. This is an emergency in China. Hopefully they can keep it from turning into a global one.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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01-23-2020, 08:45 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: YEG
Posts: 9,981
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There has to be a TAX put on us to prevent this happening in Canada !!
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01-23-2020, 09:21 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: On the border in Lloydminster
Posts: 8,458
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Waiting for a package from DONGGUAN, GUANGDONG China right in the heart of the quarantine sent on Jan. 7 hope nobody coughed on it.
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01-23-2020, 09:35 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bat119
Waiting for a package from DONGGUAN, GUANGDONG China right in the heart of the quarantine sent on Jan. 7 hope nobody coughed on it.
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And this is also how it will spread, and come into our homes. While many disregard, think it's funny, and think we are safely isolated on the other side of the world, maybe on a farm in the praries..... This is no joke. Nobody will be safe anywhere.
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01-23-2020, 09:57 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,998
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I am not a fussy eater, but the food has to be clean ETC. Bat soup holly molly,fish heads baked, fried or boiled you name it I can eat it,but bat soup no darn way,I pass. I would puke if walked into a restaurant and seen some guy eating or licking a bat leg or face.
Every county knows bats carry bad bacteria, so why is it on the menu. That's about as exotic a meal as you can get.
Maybe I am wrong and other countries besides china enjoy this soup,i just never heard about it till Ken posted about this soup.no pun intended, but I guess I've been living in the dark.
JD
Last edited by JD848; 01-23-2020 at 10:13 PM.
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01-23-2020, 10:06 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary Perchdance
Posts: 19,285
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I have to think there will be cheap vacations to China as this settles down.
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Observing the TIGSCJ in the wilds of social media socio-ecological uniformity environments.
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01-23-2020, 10:19 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
I have to think there will be cheap vacations to China as this settles down.
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If this goes global there will be cheap vacations to anywhere you want to go. No one will want to travel.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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01-23-2020, 10:34 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD848
I am not a fussy eater, but the food has to be clean ETC. Bat soup holly molly,fish heads baked, fried or boiled you name it I can eat it,but bat soup no darn way,I pass. I would puke if walked into a restaurant and seen some guy eating or licking a bat leg or face.
Every county knows bats carry bad bacteria, so why is it on the menu. That's about as exotic a meal as you can get.
Maybe I am wrong and other countries besides china enjoy this soup,i just never heard about it till Ken posted about this soup.no pun intended, but I guess I've been living in the dark.
JD
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You name it, they’ll eat it dead or alive pretty much. Its a cultural thing. The system of government doesn’t help either. Lives don’t matter much to the CCP. Their biggest concern is to keep social harmony and maintain the status quo. Keep the people under control. They’re slow to react to these types of crises because everyone is scared to cause trouble with the boss one level above them. Early reports stated that the CCP were quick to let other countries know of the crisis but the more i read and listen it appears this was not the case. They haven’t learned much from the last go round i guess. They only reacted when it started spinning out of control.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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01-23-2020, 10:50 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lmtada
X2. Good point Dean. Flu kills 50,000 Americans year, likely 4-5,000 Canadians annually. Yes 400,000 world wide. Media needs drama to sell.
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Don’t think these numbers are correct. It can’t kill 400k worldwide and 50k in the US. USA’s population is roughly 4% of the world’s. 50 our of 400 is 12%; in other words, 12% of all flu victims die in the United States. Considering their health services are not the worst in the world, one or both of these stats don’t make any sense. Same goes for Canada. Having population of only 0.5% of the global population, we can’t have 1%+ of all flu related deaths happening here in the country. Numbers are surely wrong.
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01-23-2020, 10:54 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Alberta
Posts: 24,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishnguy
Don’t think these numbers are correct. It can’t kill 400k worldwide and 50k in the US. USA’s population is roughly 4% of the world’s. 50 our of 400 is 12%; in other words, 12% of all flu victims die in the United States. Considering their health services are not the worst in the world, one or both of these stats don’t make any sense. Same goes for Canada. Having population of only 0.5% of the global population, we can’t have 1%+ of all flu related deaths happening here in the country. Numbers are surely wrong.
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Complications from the flu can include serious conditions, like pneumonia or heart attacks and, in some cases, death. Flu causes about*12,200*hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths in Canada each year.
https://www.ontario.ca › flu-facts
The flu | Ontario.ca
__________________
Only dead fish go with the flow. The rest use their brains in life.
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
I wasn't thinking far enough ahead for an outcome, I was ranting. By definition, a rant doesn't imply much forethought.....
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01-23-2020, 11:08 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob
This virus is still in it's infancy. As it spreads exponentially, so will the mutations, and the chances of this thing being more that just what it has shown to be thus far.
From Oxford Academic/Infectious Disease Society of America:
"Because of their seasonal travel by railroad, these migrant workers were a likely source for the introduction and spread of the influenza virus in Spain. Starting in central and southern France (close to the battlefields and Army camps) and following the railway path from north to east (Portugal) and from north to south (Andalusia), the influenza spread throughout nearly all of Spain's provinces [11, 19, 20, 23, 24] (figure 1). Mortality rates associated with influenza in this first period of the epidemic ranged from 0.04 to 0.65 deaths per 1000 inhabitants [19]. The overall mortality rate increased only slightly during this first epidemic period.
The second period of the epidemic - Influenza-related mortality rates were extremely high, ranging from 0.5 to 14.0 deaths per 1000 inhabitants
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/47/5/668/296225
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He is probably talking about mortality rate in those infected. Given that about third of the world population was infected (pretty crazy ****, btw), which was about 500 million people, and estimated 50 to 100 million went to better/worse places, makes it an estimated 10-20% mortality rate. I would think that these are the numbers he is referring to.
If I correctly recall what I read some time ago, some countries were trimmed by as much as 30% of their inhabitants. It is pretty crazy stuff. Survival among pregnant women was something like 50% or even less. These numbers are form memory, so don’t quote me on that. I also remember reading that the higher survival rate among older folks may have been due to the fact that there was another pandemic a few decades before that that they may have caught or something like this.
Either way, I don’t think you can compare the two cases even remotely. In spite of insane mobility nowadays, we have over a century worth of development in medicine, water supply, sewers, hygiene, etc. We are just better prepared in the modern developed world.
Personally, I am not too worried about it just yet. I have two kids, 2 and 5 year olds.
Lastly, the Chinese are saying this is only the beginning and they are expecting for the the **** to hit the fan sometime in February. That will be the pick of it, according to them.
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01-23-2020, 11:11 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette
Complications from the flu can include serious conditions, like pneumonia or heart attacks and, in some cases, death. Flu causes about*12,200*hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths in Canada each year.
https://www.ontario.ca › flu-facts
The flu | Ontario.ca
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Then the world figure is wrong. I mean there is gotta be something wrong with these stats because they don’t make sense. If there isn’t, there are much bigger problems with our health care system than what we briefly discussed on this forum and elsewhere.
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01-23-2020, 11:28 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob
25 deaths out of 830 cases, brings this from a 2% to a 3% death rate again. 50% increase in one day, although the sample is small. I am willing to bet the true numbers are about 10x that. So what about the remaining 805 that aren't dead, yet. Bet they are not having much fun! That is just what has been tested, and reported. This is no tinfoil hat thing. It is exploding over a couple days. Watch the numbers in two weeks.... and how far it reaches....
I'm wrapping my tinfoil hat in more tinfoil as we speak. I have a pregnant wife and a 5yr old daughter, and a background in science, including studying genetics, bacteria, and viruses. My hat will be 30 layers thick soon. This thing scares me, and am certain it will get much much worse. WAY worse than SARS, which I consider minor on a global scale. I'm doing what Ken mentioned in a quickly deleted thread, I'm with you bud!
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Look at the mortality rate for MERS. This virus isn’t anything to be worried about, yet. If you want to put on a tin foil hat. IMO the odds are higher that the Chinese purposefully exposed their own people to this virus so that they could bring in Marshall law and put an end to the democracy protests without any negative PR. Then that it randomly mutated and is going to be the next plague. We can genetically modify viruses in labs FTR.
__________________
“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.” John Stuart Mill
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01-23-2020, 11:49 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2017
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Looked it up on the World Health Organization website. In regards to influenza,
“Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.“
Something doesn’t make sense or it is late and I should go to bed? If someone can point out where my confusion is, I would appreciate it.
Looked these numbers up too now:
World population: 7.7 billion
US population: 0.328 billion or 4.26% of the world
Canada population: 0.037 billion or 0.48% of the world
From the Government of Canada website:
“Each year in Canada, it is estimated that influenza causes approximately:
- 12,200 hospitalizations
- 3,500 deaths”
From the CDC website:
“CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”
If we take the averages (except for the Canadian number because that one is provided as one ambiguous number):
Worldwide: 470,000 flu related respiratory deaths
Canada: 3,500 or 0.74% of the world
USA: 36,500 or 7.77% of the world
Where am I wrong? Is “respiratory” the key word and we account for illness related deaths differently? The percentages of population and flu related deaths are pretty consistent in the US and Canada. It has gotta be that world number that is screwing with my head.
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01-23-2020, 11:56 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
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It has a relatively low transmission rate.
__________________
“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.” John Stuart Mill
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01-24-2020, 06:12 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NW Calgary
Posts: 2,785
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raab
It has a relatively low transmission rate.
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One person infected 13 in a surgery room. Maybe the transmission changes person to person as I would consider that very high.
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01-24-2020, 06:25 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewM
One person infected 13 in a surgery room. Maybe the transmission changes person to person as I would consider that very high.
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There are people called "super spreaders". He would be one of them.
Scientists have revealed each infected person is passing the virus onto between 1.4 and 2.5 people.
It is known as the virus's basic reproduction number - anything higher than 1.0 means it's self-sustaining.
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01-24-2020, 06:38 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NW Calgary
Posts: 2,785
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob
There are people called "super spreaders". He would be one of them.
Scientists have revealed each infected person is passing the virus onto between 1.4 and 2.5 people.
It is known as the virus's basic reproduction number - anything higher than 1.0 means it's self-sustaining.
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That’s good it was the exception rather than the norm. Don’t know transmissivity of other viruses or diseases but those numbers don’t seem that high. Hopefully it stays that way.
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01-24-2020, 06:55 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewM
That’s good it was the exception rather than the norm. Don’t know transmissivity of other viruses or diseases but those numbers don’t seem that high. Hopefully it stays that way.
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Those numbers are plenty high, possible exponential growth. Anything greater than 1 means it's spreading. That 1.4-2.5 would be it's effective reproduction number.
A population will rarely be totally susceptible to an infection in the real world. Some contacts will be immune. Therefore, not all contacts will become infected, and the average number of secondary cases per infectious case will be lower than the basic reproduction number. The effective reproductive number (R) is the average number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population made up of both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. If R>1, the number of cases will increase, such as at the start of an epidemic. Where R=1, the disease is endemic, and where R<1 there will be a decline in the number of cases.
If R=2, that means if one contact infects 2, then 2 infect 4, then 4 infect 8. Not exponential, but growing linearly. If R>2, then it becomes exponential growth
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01-24-2020, 06:57 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 718
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When you eat literally anything (because of generations of communism, and starvation) you're bound to catch some weird crap.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutter_oil
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01-24-2020, 07:12 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NW Calgary
Posts: 2,785
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob
Those numbers are plenty high, possible exponential growth. Anything greater than 1 means it's spreading. That 1.4-2.5 would be it's effective reproduction number.
A population will rarely be totally susceptible to an infection in the real world. Some contacts will be immune. Therefore, not all contacts will become infected, and the average number of secondary cases per infectious case will be lower than the basic reproduction number. The effective reproductive number (R) is the average number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population made up of both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. If R>1, the number of cases will increase, such as at the start of an epidemic. Where R=1, the disease is endemic, and where R<1 there will be a decline in the number of cases.
If R=2, that means if one contact infects 2, then 2 infect 4, then 4 infect 8. Not exponential, but growing linearly. If R>2, then it becomes exponential growth
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Thanks for the clarification. Looks like 13 cities closed now. WHO hasn't declared a global emergency so hopefully that is a good sign.
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01-24-2020, 08:12 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 3,700
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Interesting comment by Gilead Sciences Inc
Found this little gem in an Al Jazeera article:
Quote:
Gilead assessing Ebola drug as possible coronavirus treatment
Gilead Sciences Inc said it was assessing whether its experimental Ebola treatment could be used to treat coronavirus infection.
"Gilead is in active discussions with researchers and clinicians in the United States and China regarding the ongoing Wuhan coronavirus outbreak and the potential use of Remdesivir as an investigational treatment," a company spokesman said in an emailed statement.
The company said there was no antiviral data on the drug that showed activity against the coronavirus that was identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. But testing in animals had shown that the drug was effective against the SARS coronavirus.
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Link to article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...133559818.html
__________________
“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.” - Thomas Sowell
“We seem to be getting closer and closer to a situation where nobody is responsible for what they did but we are all responsible for what somebody else did.”- Thomas Sowell
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01-24-2020, 08:52 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: West of the 5th
Posts: 953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urban rednek
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Theres a Gilead just by the river in the old celanese plant in Edmonton
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01-24-2020, 09:13 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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Second American case just confirmed in Chicago....
She returned on a plane from China (with recirculated air) and who knows how many people she's had contact with before being hospitalized and diagnosed. Here goes another wrap of tinfoil, 31 layers now.
I've got 4 half mask reusable rubber full seal face mask cartridge style respirators and a dozen cartridges with 99.97% filtration, as of this morning. Luckily my work has them. Not because I'm that scared here yet, but when it gets here, good luck getting your hands on it when you need it....
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01-24-2020, 09:16 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Alberta
Posts: 24,067
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Yesterday there were 6 confirmed in Quebec.
Wonder how many they infected
__________________
Only dead fish go with the flow. The rest use their brains in life.
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
I wasn't thinking far enough ahead for an outcome, I was ranting. By definition, a rant doesn't imply much forethought.....
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01-24-2020, 09:19 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Camrose
Posts: 2,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette
Yesterday there were 6 confirmed in Quebec.
Wonder how many they infected
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I have been following this very closely, have not heard of that!? Source? That adds to the pucker up factor a bit!
Edit: Quick google shows 4/5 in Quebec were cleared of the virus, one still under investigation there. One still under investigation in BC
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