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10-09-2020, 03:39 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary Perchdance
Posts: 19,285
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Covid Second Wave... a comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu
There are differences.
Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65
If you look at France...it is very similar.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/
Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.
Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas.
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Observing the TIGSCJ in the wilds of social media socio-ecological uniformity environments.
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10-09-2020, 03:53 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Parkland
Posts: 1,659
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The Donald cured it. We're all saved!  
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I take everything with a grain of pepper, I'm just different that way.
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10-09-2020, 03:59 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 7,696
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Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does
Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call
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10-09-2020, 04:37 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary Perchdance
Posts: 19,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoky buck
Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does
Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call
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To prevent a big second wave doesn’t mean hiding under a bed.
One can still go out...social distancing and wearing a mask.
Refrain from sharing food and drink and utensils.
This notion of hiding is a misdirected form of suppression of common sense. There are many older AOF members, family and friends we need to remember.
I am not hiding. But using common sense during a pandemic is great.
Immunity is not assured if you catch it. Future medical concerns as result of catching it is still being researched.
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Observing the TIGSCJ in the wilds of social media socio-ecological uniformity environments.
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10-09-2020, 05:08 PM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Central Alberta
Posts: 21,399
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Covid doesn't have nearly the mortality of the Spanish flu for a number of reasons, it's just the worst scenario in recent history we have for comparison. We forget about Plague in medieval times, reduced European population by half and set civilization back centuries by some estimates. We need to avoid that.
Grizz
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"Indeed, no human being has yet lived under conditions which, considering the prevailing climates of the past, can be regarded as normal."
John E. Pfeiffer The Emergence of Man
written in 1969
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10-09-2020, 06:55 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
To prevent a big second wave doesn’t mean hiding under a bed.
One can still go out...social distancing and wearing a mask.
Refrain from sharing food and drink and utensils.
This notion of hiding is a misdirected form of suppression of common sense. There are many older AOF members, family and friends we need to remember.
I am not hiding. But using common sense during a pandemic is great.
Immunity is not assured if you catch it. Future medical concerns as result of catching it is still being researched.
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I totally agree. Be careful. And don’t underestimate what it’s like to have 20% less lung function or a destroyed liver.
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10-09-2020, 08:20 PM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Central Alberta
Posts: 21,399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calgarychef
I totally agree. Be careful. And don’t underestimate what it’s like to have 20% less lung function or a destroyed liver.
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“If you can keep your head when all about you, others are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too,
You can look up the rest of Kipling's poem. 
Grizz
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"Indeed, no human being has yet lived under conditions which, considering the prevailing climates of the past, can be regarded as normal."
John E. Pfeiffer The Emergence of Man
written in 1969
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10-10-2020, 01:06 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: At the end of the Thirsty Beaver Trail, Pinsky lake, Alberta.
Posts: 25,260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoky buck
Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does
Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call
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Yes but that's just the point people are not even following the simplest of protocol and that is where the problem is....until there is a vaccine etc....some just don't get it 
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Be careful when you follow the masses, sometimes the "M" is silent... 
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10-10-2020, 04:23 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 149
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Covid is here to stay. There is no escaping that fact. We will all get it in one form or another. I believe that case count is somewhere between 10 and 100 times higher than what is being reported. Not every person has been tested and I believe that many people have been tested multiple times. I would be interested to know exactly how many different people have been tested, as opposed to how many tests have been conducted. Those two numbers will be vastly different I think.
If you feel the need to wear a bio-hazard suit to be safe, by all means fill your boots. It appears that neither masks nor distancing is working at this point. I, for one, will go about my life in a normal fashion. I will go out of my way to protect the most vulnerable population- the elderly.
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10-10-2020, 05:22 AM
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Gone Hunting
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: North of Peace River
Posts: 11,343
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I am officially a senior, I have a serious lung condition and recently had a heart attack.
So it may be my prospective is different from most, even perhaps most my age.
But I have good reason to believe that there are many my age and older who would agree with me.
I did not spend the better part of my life working to give my kids the best possible chance at a good future to see that squandered on ineffective efforts and often misguided efforts to buy me and other seniors a few more weeks of life.
Washing ones hands always makes sense, social distancing when there is any illness going around makes sense. Wearing a mask can make sense in some situations.
But shutting down the whole economy, putting people out of work, spending the next three generations inheritance and hobbling our health care system make no sense at all.
One expert says we can't stop this virus, the best we can do is slow it down.
Another experts says wear a mask and save a life.
Some say follow all the rules and we will flatten the curve, but everyone knows there are always some who will never follow the rules, any rules.
Yet when the numbers start to rise those of us who do follow the rules are hit with even more rules that the rebels will not follow.
How am I as an individual to have any faith in the system when the system is doing stuff like that?
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Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few.
George Bernard Shaw
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10-10-2020, 07:31 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 58thecat
Yes but that's just the point people are not even following the simplest of protocol and that is where the problem is....until there is a vaccine etc....some just don't get it |
Can always get the brain swab/liberal chip implanted or maybe most already got the test 
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10-09-2020, 05:02 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
There are differences.
Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65
If you look at France...it is very similar.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/
Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.
Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas. |
How is it similar, because people died?
Last edited by HVA7mm; 10-09-2020 at 05:13 PM.
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10-10-2020, 09:20 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary Perchdance
Posts: 19,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HVA7mm
How is it similar, because people died?
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Look at the curves and the similarities.
France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000
Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.
Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.
In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.
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Observing the TIGSCJ in the wilds of social media socio-ecological uniformity environments.
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10-10-2020, 03:25 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Peace River
Posts: 1,268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
Look at the curves and the similarities.
France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000
Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.
Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.
In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.
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What capacity do hospitals run at as an average? Hearing that a hospital is at 70% capacity seems to me that things must be slow at that hospital...
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10-10-2020, 03:50 PM
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Gone Hunting
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: North of Peace River
Posts: 11,343
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I wonder just how meaningful comparisons between 1918 and 2020 can be.
World population in 1918, around 1.8 billion
World population in 2020 7.7 billion
Industrial and vehicle pollution in 1918, almost non existent
In 2020, Industrial pollution, thousands of tons per year
Transportation, thousands of tons per year.
1918 Heart disease, diabetics, cancer and obesity all minimal.
2020 all at crisis levels.
1918 diet, mostly organic.
2020, so laced with man made chemicals the labeling a product as organic warrants doubling the price.
I wonder what the Spanish flu would do in today's world if it appeared for the first time in 2020.
__________________
Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few.
George Bernard Shaw
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10-10-2020, 04:34 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: At the lake
Posts: 2,602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KegRiver
I wonder just how meaningful comparisons between 1918 and 2020 can be.
World population in 1918, around 1.8 billion
World population in 2020 7.7 billion
Industrial and vehicle pollution in 1918, almost non existent
In 2020, Industrial pollution, thousands of tons per year
Transportation, thousands of tons per year.
1918 Heart disease, diabetics, cancer and obesity all minimal.
2020 all at crisis levels.
1918 diet, mostly organic.
2020, so laced with man made chemicals the labeling a product as organic warrants doubling the price.
I wonder what the Spanish flu would do in today's world if it appeared for the first time in 2020.
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I doubt the Spanish flu would have even close to the same mortality rate if it happened today. Most of those that died in the 1918 pandemic died due to lack of basic (by today's standards) medical care. If you are hypoxic and require oxygen it doesn't matter if it's caused from influenza or covid. If you don't oxygen get it you will quickly die. That wasn't an option in 1918. Patients are just as sick now, but don't die nearly as often due to interventions that couldn't have been imagined a hundred years ago.
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10-12-2020, 09:53 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HVA7mm
How is it similar, because people died?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
Look at the curves and the similarities.
France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000
Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.
Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.
In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.
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I guess that you could say that, however in 1919 the life expectancy in France was around 47-48 years, where as now it's more like 83. The population of France in 1919 was say 39 million and today around 67 million. So if anything, due to population density alone, the graph today should be looking much worse than in 1919.
Since the population has increased about 67% since 1919, the overall affect on the population hasn't been nearly as bad as it was 100 years ago. Also the majority of people succumbing to COVID in France are over 75 years in age, so in 1919 with the life expectancy being under 50, maybe very few would have died of COVID as there wouldn't be a very large demographic over the age of 75.
The graph provided in the beginning of this thread might as well be the beginning of a Bob Ross landscape painting.
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10-18-2020, 05:34 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Whitecourt
Posts: 676
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The mask will save everyone. Lmfao.
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10-12-2020, 03:50 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Lethbridge
Posts: 545
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10-28-2020, 04:07 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 33
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11-14-2020, 02:40 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Posts: 608
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
There are differences.
Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65
If you look at France...it is very similar.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/
Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.
Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas. |
You are getting your data from World-O-Meter ? LOL
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