[fishnguy]

^ Here is the latest study (June 22) on case fatality rates in Canada and the US, which are pretty much the same, according to the authors (around 1.6% in Canada and 1.8% in the US).

CMAJ: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

Interpretation

Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rates of COVID-19 cases are less than 50% in Canada, the adjusted CFR is likely to be less than 2%. Estimates of the adjusted CFR for the US were slightly higher than those for Canada but still remained below 2%. We note that the CFR at the regional or city level may be different from country-level estimates. For example, using the same methodology, we found that the crude CFR for New York City was 7.2% and the adjusted CFR was 7.8% (CrI 7.2%–8.8%) on Apr. 20, 2020. On the same date, the adjusted CFR with the reporting rate interval was estimated at 2.2% (CrI 0.9%–4.5%) (unpublished data, 2020).

Reasons for the variability in CFR estimates in different countries during COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the present study and by Rajgor and colleagues13 merit further study. For example, CFR estimates in similar geographic and climate conditions such as western Pacific islands vary widely, from 0.39% (Singapore) to 7.14% (Philippines).14 A meta-analysis of studies that estimated the COVID-19 CFR showed that 13.5% (95% CI 6.2%–21.5%) of inpatients died.15 In another study, an estimated CFR of 67% was reported in critically ill patients.16,17 The CFR will vary according to the population considered, such as that in a critical care setting, a general hospital or a long-term care facility.18–20 These influences and other host, environment and exposure variables that alter CFRs merit further study.