Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob
This virus is still in it's infancy. As it spreads exponentially, so will the mutations, and the chances of this thing being more that just what it has shown to be thus far.
From Oxford Academic/Infectious Disease Society of America:
"Because of their seasonal travel by railroad, these migrant workers were a likely source for the introduction and spread of the influenza virus in Spain. Starting in central and southern France (close to the battlefields and Army camps) and following the railway path from north to east (Portugal) and from north to south (Andalusia), the influenza spread throughout nearly all of Spain's provinces [11, 19, 20, 23, 24] (figure 1). Mortality rates associated with influenza in this first period of the epidemic ranged from 0.04 to 0.65 deaths per 1000 inhabitants [19]. The overall mortality rate increased only slightly during this first epidemic period.
The second period of the epidemic - Influenza-related mortality rates were extremely high, ranging from 0.5 to 14.0 deaths per 1000 inhabitants
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/47/5/668/296225 |
He is probably talking about mortality rate in those infected. Given that about third of the world population was infected (pretty crazy ****, btw), which was about 500 million people, and estimated 50 to 100 million went to better/worse places, makes it an estimated 10-20% mortality rate. I would think that these are the numbers he is referring to.
If I correctly recall what I read some time ago, some countries were trimmed by as much as 30% of their inhabitants. It is pretty crazy stuff. Survival among pregnant women was something like 50% or even less. These numbers are form memory, so don’t quote me on that. I also remember reading that the higher survival rate among older folks may have been due to the fact that there was another pandemic a few decades before that that they may have caught or something like this.
Either way, I don’t think you can compare the two cases even remotely. In spite of insane mobility nowadays, we have over a century worth of development in medicine, water supply, sewers, hygiene, etc. We are just better prepared in the modern developed world.
Personally, I am not too worried about it just yet. I have two kids, 2 and 5 year olds.
Lastly, the Chinese are saying this is only the beginning and they are expecting for the the **** to hit the fan sometime in February. That will be the pick of it, according to them.