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Old 01-05-2016, 02:22 PM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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I work with new wells and reserves regularly and I will say that the amount of reserves/well/$ has gone way down continuously not up as CTD suggests. Sure initial rates are high and initially these wells can look like boomers but if you run typecurves of the average well performance and look at the ultimate recoverable gas that number is smaller than we used to get with simple cheap vertical wells (and the same goes for oil). We used to regularly see 1-5 BCF gas out of a $500k vertical gas well and I've seen vertical wells at +20BCF. Now that we are working the very tight poor permeability source rock we are spending +3million per horizontal hoping to get similar cum production to the old verticals. That is not an improvement.

Much is made of out technological advances but technology doesn't change poor rock. Most of the recent improvement in well performance in the US is not due to tech improvements but rather a high grading of prospects and spending gobs of capital. Of course you'll see a volume/well improvement if you stop drilling the bottom 50% of your prospects. Also if you throw endless money at longer horizontals and more fracs you can get higher rates and reserves but at what price.

If you care to learn more on some of the unconventional details and analysis of various O&G trends check out this link... http://www.artberman.com/ Based on my experience Art is pretty much on point with cutting through some of the BS and digging into the real numbers...not just those spoon fed/cherry picked by various companies trying to boost their stock price.
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