Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I know Justfishin has all his stuff in tax free accounts like RRSP and TFSA so getting in and out may make sense if he can manage to get back in somewhere near the bottom. For the majority of the long term buy and hold investors the tax consequences means getting in and out doesn't work.
Let me see if numbers can make the case more simply.
If I am holding 100,000 in ENB stock and my cost on that stock is 30,000 ($16.50 cost on what is now a $55 stock, that is also yielding me 19.7% dividend on my original investment, paid quarterly), I pay the government $17,500 in tax on the gain. That is a 17.5% drop in capital and I also lose the 20% dividend. Dividend income, because of it preferred tax treatment is a very effective form of earning money. A couple can basically earn $84,000 a year tax free if all their income comes from dividends. Not something you want to give up.
Even if ENB drops 20% from today's price, I will basically have broke even with having sold out and paid the tax. The problem with selling out and paying the tax is, I now only have $85,000 to buy back in with. No matter how you cut it, selling out your gains costs you a min of 25% of the gain, and that is a permanent reduction in capital. It also means that when you buy back in at $43, you will have another taxable position on that gain as the stock climbs back to $55, so the whole theory of avoiding downdrafts does not bear out unless everything you are transacting is in tax free accounts.
I do however have some cash on the side to deploy as some top quality stocks are going to be a deal as this market drop keeps up.
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Excellent analysis. I had somebody explaining to me how stupid I was to hold, and not panic sell. Of course the person who was telling me I was stupid has a net worth of a 2001 dodge ram with 200,000 km on it, and a tool pouch on the passenger seat....
Anyway. Ride it out, take the dividends, max out the TFSA, and wait for the smoke to clear. That's my personal position.