Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronji
So I am at a priority 19 for 437 sheep. I have not checked the results for this year, but am certain I will not be drawn.
For those statistics people out there, what are the odds of me being drawn in that zone?
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None, there are 16 applicants with priority 20 for 4 tags, next year there will be 12 if those remaining all re apply. their priority will go to 21 for the 4 tags next year leaving 8 with priority 21 not getting drawn, the following year those 8 remaining will have priority 22, 4 will be drawn, 4 will be left for the next years tags, they will then have priority 23 and will get their tags. You will have priority 22 then, those with priority ahead of you will be gone and you will be in the pool of 39 who will have the priority it takes to get drawn the following season, maybe you will be lucky to get drawn then but as it stands now your odds will be 1 chance in thirty nine at that time. Unless a bunch of people drop out, die or they issue more tags you won't have a chance of being drawn for at least 4 more years. Those just starting out to build priority for this draw won't live long enough to get drawn. Your pretty high on the list, pretty much a shoe in to get drawn in the next 5 to 13 years, keep applying.