[yz295]

I’ve studied manias/bubbles and they all play out the same way, every single time. They go parabolic at the end and then fall off a cliff as everyone runs for the door.

Of course you have. Is this brand new sector a mania or bubble? What exactly are you comparing this sector to? This is an emerging industry and Canada is leading the world.

If you got some big gains in the sector it would be wise to cut back your exposure to a reasonable level around 5-10% of your total portfolio. Don’t let greed or the fear of missing out get the best of you. The same scenario played out with Bitcoin last December. And it played out in countless other bubbles before that when you look back in history.

I have pulled out my initial investments. Comparing this sector to bitcoin isn't the same and honestly I cant take you seriously if you honestly think this is a valid comparison. These are real companies with real revenues selling a real product. Constellation Brands invested $5 billion.

Consider John Doe who was unlucky to have invested $1,000,000 into Tilray at the top price of $300/share. John watched the stock plummet before the pain was to much and he got out at $112.50. He is now sitting on about $375000 in his account. It’s going to take him about 14.5 years to get back to even at a 7% real rate of return (375000 x 1.07^14.5). There is going to be lots of John Does out there when this bubble busts. Be careful IMHO.

John Doe is an uneducated investor. That doesn't mean we are all. Anyone buying Tilray over $50 a share is a day trader swing trading or is extremely uneducated and hasn't done their due diligence. Tilray is a prime example of what happens when stupid money follows hype. Smart money was shorting Tilray.

I have watched these stocks rise and fall in huge amounts. I stated that earlier in an earlier post. These stocks aren't for the weak. You need to have a plan and hopefully you entered early. This isn't for everyone... Have a plan and trust your DD. Dont invest in a company you aren't willing to hold for 5 years unless you are a day trader.