Having fished all three locations multiple times each over the last 20 some years, I would have to say it depends on what you want to experience.
So here is my two cents,,,
1) Mexico- the bonefish tend to be smaller than either Cuba or the Bahamas but are numerous and generally easy to catch.
Some tarpon fishing is available south of Cancun but don't expect too many over 20 lbs The tarpon fishing is better north of Cancun and seasonally there are some larger tarpon caught there (April though July) but very few bones or permit are caught north of Cancun.
If you want to say you have caught a permit, Ascension Bay or Xcalak is the place to try. You will likely get more shots at schools of 3 - 12 lb permit which tend to be the best fly eaters than anywhere else you might cast a fly to permit (Belize and the Honduras would be my next choices for permit). You might have shots at permit over 20 lbs, as well in Mexico.
I am not impressed by the work attitude of many Mexican guides, they seem to get pretty routine orientated and watch the clock very closely for quitting time. Language can be an issue if you don't speak Spanish.
2) Cuba has some of the best flats fishing in the world but thanks to Avalon most of it is a lot more than $3500 now (other than Las Salinas and and some of the north shore cayos). I haven't done the Las Salinas thing but I have fished the north cayos a few times and have several good fishing buddies who have done the Las Salinas thing. And yes, as you already know and have experienced, the "budget fishing" in Cuba is still pretty darn good, but I personally have given up on Cuba fishing as the logistics of fishing Cuba result in long daily travel times between the fishing grounds and accommodations eating into your fishing time and generally poorer fishing boats and equipment than you see in Mexico or the Bahamas.
3) The Bahamas are all about bonefish, bonefish and more bonefish!!! Possible shots at double digit bones, but mostly schoolie bones averaging 3 -4 lb with lots more bones in between.
Do not go there if you want to target permit or tarpon. Websites and lodge promoters may suggest you can have your shots at permit and tarpon, but I would be very surprised if more than 1% of the anglers who go to the Bahamas actually get to cast to a tarpon or a permit while there.
Andros probably has world's best bonefish habitat and several of the other Bahamian Islands are a close second, third , fourth etc.. Many of these flats lend themselves to easy wading (typically you will have more opportunity for easier wading here than in Mexico or Cuba).
Guided flyfishing for bones is well established and most guides are very good at what they do and have better flyfishing boats than you will find in Mexico or the "budget Cuba"
Daily travel times between the fishing areas and accommodation are reasonable in most Bahamian locations allowing you to maximise your fishing day. (There are some exceptions to this such as operations that fish the south or west side of Andros or out of Pittstown Point at Crooked Island)
Bahamians speak English, certainly not the same English as we do, but if you can learn to understand a newfie, you can probably catch on to the Bahamian lingo as well.
4) A wild card to consider is the weather. If you go from December through March , you are probably more likely to experience a longer cold fronts (wind and cloud) in the Bahamas or on the north shore of Cuba . You can experience bad weather anywhere in Caribbean but if you want to play odds of perhaps experiencing shorter lived fronts then look to the south shore of Cuba or Mexico.
5) Finally the food, I agree with your assessment of the food in Cuba though they tell me that Avalon does much better job than your typical Cuban fare. I love the food in Mexico and would give Mexico the nod, unless you want eat conch. If getting "conched out" is the priority then the Bahamas is where you want to be.
Personally with the criteria you mentioned (overall cost, guide quality, food, lodging, and logistics) for that price range I would choose the Bahamas becuz I like to catch fish (bonefish) instead of possibly casting to them (as in permit) and baby tarpon just do not turn my crank. (I can handline in a 10 lb tarpon, try to do that with similar sized bonefish or a pike for that matter!!!)
But if permit and tarpon are on the bucket list as well as bonefish, then I would go to Mexico (if permit is #1 priority) or Cuba (if catching tarpon is really important in addition to bones and perhaps a shot or two at permit).
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