Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharpie
Im at P11 and my dads at p8. Im probably gonna 999 still but it would be nice to get dad a bull. Anybody think a p8 will do it? Only be putting in for the first hunt.
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I highly doubt that a P8 will work for the first season, maybe in the last few seasons.
For those contemplating the odds.
Seven seasons with 100 licences per season.
Priority numbers for this year.
P12- P15 + 383
P11 + 302 = 685
P10 + 399 = 1085
P9 + 520 = 1605
If 100% of high priority holders applied for this hunt it will take a P11 to draw.
But of course 100% will not apply, maybe 30-40-50%.
And with only 100 licences/season and three choices means that over the course of seven season and 21 "choices" there will be a factor of high priority application distribution which will crowd out lower priorities from some seasons and open the door to lower priorities for other seasons.
Most very high priority applicants will focus on the first season or three and will compete within their own pools resulting in some not drawing a licence.
My guess..... no more than 50% of P11+ applicants will apply here (likely even less), and most of these will only apply for the first three seasons. This will make it possible for those with a P9 or P10 to possibly draw in the third to fifth seasons and P8s might even have a chance at the last couple of hunts. I wouldn't be surprised if a few P7s are drawn at some point....
Those last few hunts are going to be tough.... Elk learn fast....