Priority Point Based System Flaws
 

Alright, bare with me. I'm preparing for some backlash on this, and I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, but I'm just curious what others think.

to start off with, the numbers aren't going to be 100% correct as not all people will continue to apply, people can pass away, or move out of province, and maybe the turkeys (for this example) will grow in numbers and it won't always be a 125 quota per year.

I'm new to hunting and am deciding what I want to apply for in just a few days. After analyzing the past draw results, I am unconvinced to start 999'ing certain animals, and am curious what others opinions are on this.

For example, Merriam's Turkey.

Last year the allowed quota was 125, and there was a total of 15,717 applicants. Only 125 of the 15,717 applicants were drawn, so now if I start 999'ing this year, (I won't include new hunters, such as myself, or the 125 from last year starting fresh again.) there are 15,592 applicants a head of me.

Simple math, 15,592/125 = 124.736

124 years until I would be drawn.

I figure if I can live to the ripe old age of 151, I won't be up for a good ol' Turkey shoot. If someone is so inclined to turkey hunt, it would probably be a much wiser investment to save up, and head elsewhere.

The higher priority ranked individuals out of 15,592 applicants will probably disagree, but shouldn't these low quota animals be on a lottery based system such as Bison? It would be unfair to those who have waited many years to change now, but this has turned into a hunt completely out of reach now for the new hunting generation.

Anyone who was priority 5 or less last year has 7,063 people a head of them, excluding another 1,402 who are priority 5 with you. You're looking at 56+ years.

Bottom line. Would you start applying now on these draws, or is this shot just too far out of range.

You are correct in that with certain draws, there is really no point in applying. The problems come when it's time to decide which draws should be once in a lifetime lottery draws, and which should remain based on the priority system. I myself would set the limit at all draws that require more than 15 years to draw, but other people would disagree. And what do you do for the people that have already built up many priority points towards a draw that becomes a lottery draw? Any way that you look at it, when you make a change, someone loses out.

Some critters just aren't worth the effort to hunt here unless you've already been in the game 10+ years, would much rather just hunt turkeys or mountain goats down in the states

it will cost you 456.25 over those 125 years as well. darn near half a decent turkey hunt. Another possible solution instead of putting things on lottery is grouping the rare draws together and only letting you send in for 1.

The reality is, last year guys pulled that tag with a P7. If you run the math using your logic there are lots of tags you might never get but my money says you probably will within a decade or so just like last year and quite likely this year again.
Guys put in for lots of tags because they can, doesn't mean they're going to draw them. What's important is how many years priority is actually required to get the tag, not how many people are in front of you.

sucks to be you

Umm no...
It does matter how many people are in front of you and not the priority needed. If last year there was 125 tags given and there was 7000 people that were a priority 7 then this year this is 6875 that are priority 8 now and so on and so on. Priority number means nothing it's people ahead of you

What matters is how many people with more priority than you apply to draw a tag. Some people like myself often use the 999 code until we have many more points than is required to draw a tag, but as long as we use the 999 code, we aren't a factor in the odds of drawing.

at $3/year, why not? or go turkey hunting in ontario

That's nice but that's not what we're talking about. Neither him nor I mentioned 999 system.

Not mentioning it doesn't mean it's a "non-factor" :)

LC

Whether you mentioned the 999 system or not, it does effect the odds of a person drawing a tag. Many people can have more priority, and can be ahead of you, but if they choose 999 instead of applying to draw a tag, they don't effect your odds of drawing a tag. So just looking at how many people are ahead of you, doesn't give a true indication of your odds of drawing a tag for a particular year.

Exactly!

Which is exactly what I said. The priority of what people are drawing at today is not what people will be drawing at next year. Priority number means nothing it's the people ahead of you including 999.
I think I saw a thread where someone said they were drawing a "bull" elk tag. You should probably go correct them

priority number means everything. the priority number of a person determines if they are ahead of you or not.

And if a person chooses to use 999 for longer than it takes to draw a tag from scratch, that person using 999 won't effect you at all.

But unless they apply to actually draw a tag, they don't effect your odds of drawing at all. I have a p-13 for a draw that most people draw at P-4 or P-5 , so it really didn't matter that I had more priority than most other people, they still drew their tags, even though I had more priority.

I understand how the 999 system works I use it I have no issue with it. Not sure why you're on this kick.

If i am a priority 5 and you are a priority 6 and they give 100 tags but in the priority 6 pool there is 15000 applicants then me being a priority 5 means nothing. Because next year I'll be a 6 year after I'll be a 7 etc. but unless you are in the top pool it means nothing, or if it is a draw that is statistically possible then yes it does mean something and is useful.

Because you neglected to mention it, and it is often a factor, especially when there are very few tags available for a particular wmu, and it takes a fair number of priority points to draw. You might think that you have zero chance of drawing, but if some people choose 999, you might draw after all.

On statistically possible draws yes 100% agree but he was asking about turkey which starting from 0 is not a statistically possible draw which is why I didn't mention it. Unless you think 5000 people will decide to 999 this year

Drive a couple hours and hunt Turkey in BC. You can buy the tags right over the counter.

Why not? 10,000 did last year

http://www.mywildalberta.com/Hunting...ode32-2015.pdf

Yup I've seen the summary before. So we have 10K people 999 and 5K people in the draw. Any number of which can jump in or out, but if you think that 15K people will decide to stay in 999 and drop out of the draw and that another new 1300 people starting at 0 won't jump in you've got some serious positive thinking going on.

Yep exactly what I was going to say.

Or Montana, Nebraska Wyoming, Washington, Idaho, etc. Lots of birds with lots of opportunities in all those states.

Last year 2015, only 5412 people put in for the draw, 10,305 peopl 999'd so your whole equation is off. Look at the Alberta harvest reports. Also, you would have different odds for every year, because not everyone with a p7 gets drawn, look at the applicants for p7 in 2015, only 60 got chosen out of 705 applicants. That's only 8.5%, but if you look a little further up, they chose 61 applicants with a p8, which was 100% of those applicants. The more priority you get, the higher your chances are of drawing! Period!

This system works! It's much better than random drawing in my opinion! At least with every passing year, you get closer to attaining the tag. With random draws, you might never get drawn!

Read this!!!!!!!!
http://www.mywildalberta.com/Hunting...ode32-2015.pdf

No backlash here. We can discuss calmly. I will say that I did get drawn for turkeys this year and have been waiting about 7 or 8 years, so I'm not sure those numbers you are quoting really boil down to the odds you present. Lots of people must drop out, die, etc.

You are right though in saying that the odds of a few draws are pretty long. But that said I don't know why that means the people who have been waiting the longest should be overlooked to give newcomers a shot. Why is a lottery "better"? It's better for you if you haven't put in the time and money to put in for draws for a decade, but it's not better for someone who has. Which ever system you use, it doesn't result in more turkeys being available. It just means that a Johnny-come-lately now has a 1 in 200 chance of being drawn. Not sure how much that is worth.

The problem is that any change to help one person, will hurt another person. The concern is that someone that just turns 12 this year, will never have a chance to ever draw some tags like the 437 sheep tag. They would have to be over 100 years old to build enough priority points to draw. As for waiting ten or fifteen years, I have no issues with that, I am P-13 for two draw codes now, but it seems wrong that some people could apply for their entire life and never have any chance at drawing certain tags.

As an old geezer (with some high draw priorities) I say that we have to teach young folks that they have to lose their sense of entitlement. There are some things they just can't expect to have. LOL ;)

Not only does it seem wrong, it is wrong.
I think they should start doing all draws with 90% based on priority points and 10% of the tags totally random.
Pull the 90% first based on highest priority with 10% pulled from all remaining applicants regardless of priority number.
This gives every applicant at least a chance at it every year.

All the while wanting to protect your 'entitlement'. :snapoutofit:

This old geezer would like to see it all on random draw. Pay your money and take your chances.:)