437 Sheep
 

So I am at a priority 19 for 437 sheep. I have not checked the results for this year, but am certain I will not be drawn.
For those statistics people out there, what are the odds of me being drawn in that zone?

None, there are 16 applicants with priority 20 for 4 tags, next year there will be 12 if those remaining all re apply. their priority will go to 21 for the 4 tags next year leaving 8 with priority 21 not getting drawn, the following year those 8 remaining will have priority 22, 4 will be drawn, 4 will be left for the next years tags, they will then have priority 23 and will get their tags. You will have priority 22 then, those with priority ahead of you will be gone and you will be in the pool of 39 who will have the priority it takes to get drawn the following season, maybe you will be lucky to get drawn then but as it stands now your odds will be 1 chance in thirty nine at that time. Unless a bunch of people drop out, die or they issue more tags you won't have a chance of being drawn for at least 4 more years. Those just starting out to build priority for this draw won't live long enough to get drawn. Your pretty high on the list, pretty much a shoe in to get drawn in the next 5 to 13 years, keep applying.

I stopped applying for 437 8 years ago. Mathematically I would have been drawn in my 80's. Sitting with a P10 hoping they change it some day. The privileged hunters have decimated the Ram herd in that zone unfortunately.

Spruce

Things aren't what they used to be. Best bet is the late hunt and hope one of those rams from across the road goes for a hike to visit the girls.

Grizz

Not quite correct.
At that time he will have a 4 in 39 chance of being drawn, or basically a 1 in 10. Unless some 999, then it will be better than 1 in 10.

Yes your correct.

Still another 13 years to get drawn in a zone that gets nicely culled on a regular basis.... things have changed since you started applying there...sorry for your loss.